Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Fiscal Policy and Learning
Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature (in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values ...
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As economics has developed, a number of different fiscal principles have been suggested. Perhaps the oldest principle was that the Government should balance its books. This principle was adopted by the 1979 Conservative Government but they delivered a budget in balance or in surplus only in 1988/89 and 1989/90. The same principle has been adopted in the Stability and Growth Pact, albeit with an...
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This paper explores the interaction between fiscal policy and unemployment. It develops a novel dynamic model in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and public spending increases. Such policies are fiscally costly, but can be financed by issuing government debt. In the context of this model, the paper analyzes the simultaneous determination of fiscal policy and unemplo...
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We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by (McCallum 2001), and the classification of fiscal and monetary policies proposed by (Leeper 1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE). Our first result is that the fiscalist REE in the model of (McCallum 2001) is not locally stable under learning. In contrast, in the setting of (Leeper ...
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Due to the complex nature of fiscal policy decisions and implementations, fiscal vector autoregressive models have suffered from an underidentification problem that has caused substantial debate about measuring the efficacy of fiscal stimulus. To help resolve this issue this paper incorporates additional information regarding how private agents’ anticipation of fiscal adjustment in the short an...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Monetary Economics
سال: 2009
ISSN: 0304-3932
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.09.007